The Afghan Conundrum: Decoding Pakistan’s Approach National Security imperatives have formed a core part of any country’s foreign policy. Pakistan is no exception. Even though the National Security policy introduced for the first time in the country aims to adopt a geo-economic approach, the role of defense remains pivotal in determining Pakistan’s foreign policy and still remains a challenge.
Afghanistan, in this regard has been a matter of concern for Pakistan. Instability marred by terrorism in the region has always had serious implications for Pakistan. But recently, a lot of major developments in Afghanistan have completely shifted the situation in the region .The tumultuous US withdrawal, followed by the collapse of its backed government, saw the return of the Taliban to the power corridors. This was seen as a diplomatic victory for Pakistan as it saw the return of a “friendly government” in Kabul for the first time in decades. It is not smooth sailing; however, a serious challenge lies for the foreign policy makers to mould their strategy according to the ground realities in determining the Afghan Policy.
Pakistan adopted a diplomatic position of waiting for other countries’ before formally accepting the new government, signaling that Pakistan is not an “unconditional supporter”, but a policy of give and take should follow. The main challenge faced by Pakistan is the rise of TTP which considers Taliban their leaders. Taliban’s return to power saw a shift in balance of power between the TTP and the Pakistani state. The TTP which had been crushed by military operations, has gone back to violence, a sharp increase in attacks was observed after the Taliban came into power. The Taliban spokesperson initially considered it “Pakistan’s internal issue” and asked her to reconsider whether or not the TTP’s war is legitimate and formulates a policy accordingly. However the Taliban government acted as a mediator to arrange a ceasefire on November 9 between TTP and the Pakistani government. However the TTP ended the ceasefire a month later on the grounds of not hearing back from the other two actors. Their key demands have been the release of foot-soldiers from de-radicalization camps, implementation of Shariah and restoration of tribal areas to their pre-merger state. These seem, particularly the last two, impossible for the state to concur. The Taliban government should be coaxed to play a more effective role on accounts of the influence they exercise on the TTP. Border fencing was the major reason of Pakistan’s sour relations with the previous Afghan government and it remains a point of contention with the Taliban as well, despite their close ties to Islamabad. Pakistan has fenced 2600km of the border, 90%, in the last 4 years despite Kabul’s protests who reject the British demarcation that splits tribes and families on both sides Recently, Afghan defense minister Enayatullah Khwarzmi was heard saying that Pakistan has no right to fence the border as it is “inappropriate and against the law.” Taliban forces were shown trying to remove fences in videos that have recently resurfaced. Pakistan’s foreign minister downplayed the incident as “Certain miscreants are raising this issue unnecessarily, but we are looking into it and we are in contact with the Afghan government. Hopefully, we would be able to resolve the issue diplomatically.” However the Taliban’s spokesperson response on the issue suggested otherwise. “The issue of the Durand Line is still an unresolved one, while the construction of fencing itself creates rifts between a nation spread across both sides of the border. It amounts to dividing a nation,” This issue has been another flashpoint for several decades and still remains unresolved. Policymakers on both sides need to show some flexibility if they are really serious to get this issue sorted once and for all, there could be no better timing. The repatriation of Afghan refugees and Afghanistan’s commitment to human rights is another matter of concern. Pakistan hosts 90% of the total Afghan Diaspora (4 million refugees) which have had an impact on social fabric of the Pakistani society as well as its fragile economy. Even though Pakistan is not registering any new refugees, but this should not attenuate Islamabad’s concerns over the refugees, especially when it is going through testing times economically. In this regard, meaningful engagement with the Taliban is required to prioritize the facilitation of a formal repatriation of Afghan refugees, urging the Taliban to forge a conducive domestic environment for this. A coherent Afghan policy is tantamount to safeguard Pakistan’s geopolitical interests. We need to play our cards smartly to gain strategic advantages The Taliban are Islamabad’s main conduit for influence and access to Afghanistan.. The Haqqani Network is the strongest Taliban faction economically and militarily. They have had historical links with Pakistan and the recent inclusion of their two members as ministers in the Taliban caretaker government, Siraj ud din Haqqani as interior minister and Khalid Haqqani as minister of refugees will keep the faction’s importance. Pakistan has gained a prime opportunity to try and shape Afghan government policy with the Taliban’s rise to power as Pakistan remains a crucial patron of their government, raising voice to unfreeze their assets, when majority of the counties are treating them as a pariah. Pakistan has the opportunity to reduce India’s footprint in Afghanistan when in several decades India has been deprived of a friendly government in Kabul. Pakistan can work with its strongest ally China and increasingly close friend Russia to bring infrastructure and investment into Afghanistan, strengthening her hold in the country while developing connectivity projects extending into South Asia. These efforts will help advance Pakistan’s desired goal of transitioning her foreign policy towards geo-economic lines from geo-political ones. It will also help to shrink India’s space and her ambitions of deepening her influence in Central Asia.
Author: Simran Saeed
The author is an undergraduate student at National Defence University, Islamabad.