The unanticipated withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan has exposed a number of nascent avenues of foreign policy to be explored for the regional countries as well as global leaders. For Pakistan, at one hand it was deemed a strategic victory by the international experts, at the other it brought attention to, perhaps the most important questions of the decade. What would the US-Pak relationship look like now that US doesn’t need Pakistan. The post-USSR withdrawal US behavior has been evoked. How would Pakistan orient itself in between the grappling powers; US and china, in such a fashion that it cannot only survive but flourish? Where does this put India in the entire equation?
With war having ended in Taliban takeover and a debasing humiliation for US, the mood in Washington is one of the fury. After clearing the evacuations and tying immediate loose ends, US is ready to sharply scrutinize all the actors involved in the fiasco, which is perhaps, as Pakistan fears, is a face saving attempt and the onus of the failure might be pinned to Pakistan again.In September, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken similarly said during his congressional hearing that“This is one of the things we’re going to be looking at in the days, and weeks ahead — the role that Pakistan has played over the last 20 years.”
He also mentioned that they were looking for ways to engage Pakistan in future. There was also a bill by 22 senators in congress demanding to look into role of state and non-state actors including Pakistan in achieving the victory for Taliban. This has rung the alarms in Pakistan, where the talk of Biden not even calling Khan had not yet died.
The contrast in policy objectives of both the countries is clearly visible, as Pakistan wants from the US an inclusive partnership, a long term relationship based on broad investment portfolio, substantial trade and public diplomacy whereas US, as always, wants a clientalistic relationship and engage Pakistan only in narrow diplomatic as well as military endeavors exclusively on Afghanistan. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman visited Pakistan in early October, about which she said in India: “It’s for a very specific and narrow purpose, we don’t see ourselves building a broad relationship with Pakistan. And we have no interest in returning to the days of hyphenated India, Pakistan”Particularly, US wants Pakistan to withhold any support for Afghanistan to satisfy her pointless vendetta whereas, as PM Khan has said repeatedly that the US must pull itself together and engage with Taliban to prevent humanitarian crises. Pakistan also fears spillover effects from an isolated, poor and weak government in Afghanistan.
However, in Pakistan, Wendy Sherman seemed more diplomatic and upon asking, told that regional connectivity and geo-economics were on the table as well, apart from Afghanistan. Which signified that China is a major hindrance in the development of the relationship Pakistan wants with the US. China and US are clearly at crossroads and Pakistan seems to be stuck in between. China being Pakistan’s neighbor has intensified the effect. Pakistan somehow, hopes to maintain cordial ties with both the giants despite growing animosity. Diplomacy is not a zero sum game, meant Zahid Chaudhary, spokesperson of ministry of foreign affairs Pakistan, when he commented:“We support all initiatives aimed at supporting the development efforts in lagging economies. We wish not to let the bitterness between other nations define our diplomatic goals. We aim at broadening the base of our economic connectivity in the region and beyond.”
Although it does look comforting as a policy statement but in realpolitik, the task at hand is far harder to manage. China has plans to invest almost 62 billion dollars in pakistan.US hasn’t been able to come up with a substantial counter plan. It has some preliminary plans to provide an alternative to belt and road initiative in the region, Biden recently said:“I suggest we should have, essentially, a similar initiative coming from democratic states, helping those communities around the world that need it”These, however remain to the extents of talks only as of yet. It is being argued in the financial circles that perhaps Pakistan’s economy is too west centric to be mended towards china completely. To compensate for the fact, official claims have been inclusive:“The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative. We welcome and encourage the Western countries to invest in Special Economic Zones (SEZs) of CPEC”.
This goes on to show that Pakistan has decided to stick to CPEC, no matter what and would only go as far as making it inclusive, as recent policy statements depict that it’s looking for a balance between powers. On the other hand, US looks adamant on making Pakistan shed Chinese influence, and seems to consider it a prerequisite for engagement with Pakistan at a broader level.Pakistan, at far too many recent instances, has carried out policies and objectives that had potential to antagonize US. Starting from Afghanistan; peace and stability recovered the prospects of CPEC going into central Asia through wakhan corridor, which passes through a small strip in Afghanistan before entering Tajikistan. Islamabad has also given a go to the J-10 medium weight fighter purchase of two squadrons. Pakistan also skipped “summit for democracy” where it was invited by President Biden. Experts argue that it was due to china’s absence in the summit. These instances expose the real struggle in the efforts Pakistan is making to maintain the intricate relationship with the bellicose powers.
Until recently, the central theme of Pakistan’s foreign policy has always revolved around neutralizing the Indian threat and keeping Kashmir alive. With, newly constructed national security policy, the focus has shifted to geo-economics. That, however,doesn’t replace India’s central place in Pakistan’s foreign policy given the contrasting economic interests. Kashmir is nowhere near resolution, it is worsening instead, and the riseof far right- wing in India has intensified the zero sum game. Pakistan’s concern primarily grows from American backing of India as regional power to counter Chinese influence. Particularly, in the seas, Pakistan sees Indian ambitions and acquisitions as distortions in balance of power leading towards instability of the Asia-Pacific. The growing diplomatic clout of India is also something that Pakistan has struggled to counter along with information warfare. This, further pushes Pakistan towards unhealthy extents of Chinese reliance which Pakistan has been trying to prevent.“Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us”; said 35th US president, John F. Kennedy, and particularly when it comes to the great powers, the marshlands of policy making must be treaded over with utmost caution. Pakistan, having only partially recovered the fallout from being put in a position of choosing sides in the case of USSR and US, yet again, has found herself in the quagmire of US-CHINA trade wars and potential kinetic conflict. This puts ample pressure on diplomatic brass to steer Pakistan through the tumultuous global order.
Author: Najam Ul Hassan Naqvi
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Pakistan Frontier.