Turkiye Earthquake, response and coming Elections February 6th 2023 brought a catastrophe for the people of Turkiye and Syria. Two massive earthquakes of magnitudes 7.8 and 7.5 respectively hit south-eastern Turkiye and adjacent areas of western Syria. The center of devastating earthquakes was the Gaziantep (Turkiye) while the duration is also significant to note for the first tremor being felt for 90 seconds. 10 south-eastern provinces of Turkiye were hugely affected by the massive shocks as buildings collapsed, roads diverged in and most unfortunately, the loss of lives. As per now, the collective death toll has risen above 34000 with more than 80000 injured. Violent tremors majorly hit the cities of Adıyaman, Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, Osmaniye and Diyarbakir in south-eastern turkey.
According to experts, the devastation significantly owes to the inferior quality infrastructure that brought large buildings down in seconds. Most of these included residential buildings with multiple floors. Turkiye did reform its building codes following similar destructions from 1999 earthquake but the government failed to bring them into force. While sharing a thought over poor quality building materials, Eyup Muhcu, President of the Chamber of Architects of Turkey said that poor construction caused massive destruction, not merely the earthquake. Moreover, it has been exposed that construction companies were granted amnesty by authorities so that they could avoid investing large costs in building/housing projects. Thus, despite experiencing damages as a result of 1999 earthquake, Turkiye yet witnessed huge loss of life and property owing to not making earthquake resistible buildings. Surprisingly, the government agency responsible for looking over construction methods acknowledged that around 13 million apartments that make up for more than half of Turkiye’s buildings do not comply with natural disasters’ resistible standards. Consequently, some recently built apartment buildings have even collapsed due to the quakes. Leaders from all across the world have offered sympathies to victims and sent on for emergency services. The Armenia-Turkiye border has been opened after 35 years out of humanitarian services. Paramedic staff, professional search and rescue teams and aids have been sent from 77 countries.
Surprisingly, the country awaits elections in May. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a tough time. He must tackle the catastrophic situation as smooth and swiftly as possible to avoid people’s resentment that might cost him votes. Somewhat similar situation paved the way for current president Erdoğan two decades ago to come into power in 2002 general elections. Following 1999 earthquake’s destruction, he won support of masses by promising several reforms that would guarantee their health, security, safety, housing, and livelihood. The country was also trapped in economic undergrowth and high inflation. He, undoubtedly, introduced many reforms, elevated country’s economic growth and reduced inflation just the same way as now. He still holds a significant public support but recent earthquakes might turn tables upside down. The opposition parties have already started maneuvering against Erdoğan by criticizing victims’ relief operations as well as the shoddy infrastructure. However, he stays firm and in recent visits to the cities affected, he addressed the incident as “destiny’s plan”. The President has declared three months emergency till May prior to elections. Most probably, elections might be pushed a bit ahead of May but it’s constitutionally impossible to delay more than a month except in case of a war.
Moreover, Erdoğan’s AKP holds a significant majority in 6 of 10 provinces severely hit by tremors, for instance, Adıyaman procured 70% of votes for AKP in 2018 elections. In temperatures below zero, it is quite an effort to provide shelter, food to people. One of Erdoğan’s key policies is that he limited military’s rule in general public affairs. He has given more autonomy to civilian institutions than military. One of its consequences is visible in search and rescue operations for the quakes’ victims. The civil organizations like AFAD and Ahbap could be seen dominantly at catastrophic sites. The military did take part in rescue and search operations but rather less swiftly than governmental and non-governmental organizations. Moreover, Türkiye’s economy over past few years seems not compelling enough to make up for the losses due to disaster. After 2016, inflation has significantly risen as Lira’s value fell. The policy of low interest rates introduced in 2021 worsened the economy rather than maintaining it. Rates of unemployment worsened the situation and now followed by the earthquake, not only lives but livelihoods are lost too. The fate of current government is totally up to how it manages to rehabilitate the victims’ of country’s worst natural disaster in light of above challenges.
Opinion By Sanna Zeb. The Author Is An Undergraduate Student At National Defence University, Islamabad.