US-Iran peace talks in stalemate sent oil prices rebounding more than 1% on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected a peace deal from Iran aimed at resolving their conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, keeping tensions in the Middle East elevated.
Brent crude futures rose $1.32, or 1.27%, to $105.64 a barrel by 0036 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $93.11 a barrel, up 70 cents, or 0.76%. The rally followed a weekend of diplomatic friction that dashed hopes of a near-term de-escalation.
Iran announced a peace proposal last week at the UN General Assembly in New York, saying it had been transmitted to the Americans via Qatari mediators. Trump said on Saturday he rejected the plan, but told Axios in a phone interview on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to engage in more talks this week. The mixed signals left traders weighing the prospect of continued supply disruptions against the possibility of a breakthrough.
Analysts cautioned that the risk premium is likely to persist. “Geopolitical risks remain elevated, as the Houthis and Iran continued their attacks on Saudi Arabia, leaving regional supply flows vulnerable,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Yemen’s Saudi-led coalition said early on Saturday it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones launched by the Iran-backed Houthis towards the kingdom. The attacks underscored the fragility of the security situation around key energy infrastructure.
Brent edged up 0.4% last week but WTI lost 7.9% on concerns that the US may ban diesel exports to ease record prices, a move that could curb US refining output. The divergence highlighted how product markets are shaping the broader oil complex.
“Refined oil products remain a pressure point, with record US diesel prices intensifying inflation risks and prompting renewed debate over potential export curbs,” ANZ analysts said. Any restriction on US diesel exports would tighten supply outside the US, with European prices reacting to the prospect of reduced American supply, they added.
Meanwhile, crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the war started in February, preliminary data from Kpler showed on Monday, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates boosted exports.
The rebound came following a recovery in shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, which were set to hit about 7.4 million bpd this month, the data showed, as Saudi Arabia diverted exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to its eastern Ras Tanura port following attacks that damaged its East-West pipeline.
With US-Iran peace talks in stalemate and military incidents continuing, the market remains highly sensitive to headlines. Traders are expected to watch this week’s diplomatic contacts closely, as any sign of progress could cool prices while further escalation may push crude higher still.
Source: ARY News