Consider the possibility of goods departing from Tashkent to the shores of the Arabian Sea on a secure railway. If the plans to build the Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan (UAP) Railway, also referred to as the Trans-Afghan Railway, succeed, travel times between Uzbekistan and Pakistan could be reduced from approximately 35 days to as little as three to five days, Railway Journal reports supporters of the project say. Over the years, this concept has been confined largely to maps and diplomatic statements. It is one of the largest economic and strategic opportunities for Pakistan at this time. But we have not yet made the promise a trade route which traders can rely upon.
All five Central Asian republics are landlocked, and Uzbekistan is “doubly landlocked” it takes at least two countries to reach the sea. The Carnegie Endowment argues that because of Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the countries are forced to think outside the box when it comes to routes through Russia. It can provide them an outlet to the world markets through their ports at Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar, in the south. However, geography is not the only thing that will make Pakistan the first choice. Whether traders use our route or not will be determined by cost, security, border procedures and reliability.
This opportunity revolves around the UAP Railway. The railway would stretch some 760 kilometres from the Uzbekistan border at Termez through Afghanistan to Kharlachi on the Pakistani border, writes Railway Journal. Cargo would still need to travel on to our seaports from there. According to the same journal, this plan was agreed in July 2023.
According to Arab News, in July 2025 Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed a framework agreement for a joint feasibility study. That study has not yet been completed. It is not a decision to build: It is a first step prior to construction. While these are welcome measures, they are not funding or construction. The cost estimates have jumped from $5 billion to approximately $7 billion, Railway Journal reports. The project must also have a realistic assessment of the volume of cargo that would utilize it, an engineering plan, a realistic analysis of security issues, and commercial terms that would attract investors. Pakistan should be aware of this difference. It’s easy to make announcements with connectivity plans. It is much more difficult to make a trading route reliable.
A number of links already exist in other form(s). VOA reports that electricity from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is a key source of supply for Afghanistan. It is not an indication of whether or not a railway would be profitable, but is an indication of why better transport, energy and trade connections are worth considering. History also tells us that long ago, Central Asia and South Asia have traded goods, scholars and ideas on ancient trade routes. History, in my opinion, should not be a substitute for concrete policy for Pakistan. It should leverage it as an opportunity to develop modern relations on the basis of certain rules for transit, real commercial advantages and continuous cooperation.
Afghanistan being the most critical link in this plan is where the challenge is. In August 2021, the Talibans regained control of the political landscape in which regional connectivity has to be sought. The ties have been under tension with Pakistan since the worst clashes in years in February, news reports say. Since mid-September, Pakistan has conducted multiple air-strikes in Afghanistan in the wake of a fatal attack in the northwest of our country, according to the Long War Journal and Khaleej Times. Islamabad has alleged that Kabul is harbouring militants and the Taliban government denies the claims. Such tensions are not to be disregarded. However, Pakistan cannot expect its regional trade to increase if the talks continue to be replaced with confrontation. A prudent policy would be to maintain our security interests with great strength, but at the same time, not to close the door on diplomacy.
Central Asian governments have interests of their own and they’ll take the paths that appear to be least risky. While keeping an eye on Afghanistan’s political and security issues, they can handle them in a practical manner. Pakistan can take the same approach. There is a need for a baseline level of predictability in trade cooperation and that is something that we need to strive to deliver. The railway has for long been talked about. Roadmap for Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway was signed in Tashkent in February 2021 and countries later agreed on a roadmap through Afghanistan towards Pakistan, said the Pajhwok News. The key is how fast can the governments do the transition from planning to financing and workable project.
This is significant because other connectivity plans are on the go. According to Kazakhs government, on 30 September 2026 Kazakhs, Uzbecks and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) finalised the memorandum of understanding for the Central Asia–South Asia (CASA) railway project. This is an envisioned Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan (KAPK) connection that leads to Pakistani seaports. The parties plan to carry out technical and economic studies. The Times of Central Asia says that the memorandum does not specify who the Emirati company is and how much it is planning to invest and the UAE itself is not on the proposed route. So, it displays interest, not secured money. Nevertheless, it does convey that others are working to mould the future of this corridor.
Routes involving China are worth considering, too. Should a trans-Afghan line be constructed, the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway could be a part of a railway connection from China to Pakistan, according to the Times of Central Asia. What we must ask ourselves is, can better ties with China, Central Asia, help our own transport network and help trade to increase. The promises to enable Central Asian cargo to reach Pakistani ports by a particular route should be checked against the actual transit rules, costs and requirements of the border. These are not options that should be viewed as a race in Pakistan of which only one corridor can win. The area can be protected through several routes, should one be interrupted due to political problems, border crossing closures or other disturbances.
To benefit from them it is required of Pakistan to demonstrate competitive costs and clear procedures and delivery times for its ports and inland transport. It’s a diplomatic lesson as well. But we cannot take it for granted that the states of Central Asia will choose our ports simply because they are connected with the Arabian Sea. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are actively seeking opportunities for cooperation that will expand their options. However, Pakistan’s approach to the area as just a market for its ports could lead to ignoring the interest of the countries with whom it needs to work. They should not be customers who need to be enticed with visits here and there, but partners who are involved in the design of regional trade networks.
So, what is Pakistan to do?
Firstly, it must maintain a consistent diplomatic dialogue with Afghanistan and have its security concerns voiced in a regular manner. Trade should not be blocked to the detriment of all possible measures because of disagreements, but disagreements should not prevent the taking of each practical step.
Secondly, there should be a clear timeline by the three UAP partners to complete the feasibility study and publish the results as well as determine the viability of the project. Research into construction costs, financing options, expected volumes of freight, security, customs and the technical aspects required to link various railway systems should be done. Governments shouldn’t make commitments without the backing of the engineers and financial experts.
Thirdly, Pakistan should embrace other routes such as the Chinese route and not see it as a competitor to the Afghan route. The more routes that can be opened, the more regional trade can be beefed up provided they are commercially viable and Pakistan’s position in the routes is strengthened.
Fourthly, Pakistan needs to correct what it can correct. The ports, customs, border crossings, roads, rail connections and digital cargo systems all need to cooperate. Paperwork, vague charges and inconsistent border regulations can mar the advantages of a new railway even before it proves to be of any benefit.
Last but not least, there should be a genuine involvement of the private sector. Exporters, freight operators and shipping companies and investors should have evidence of demand and a better understanding of costs and risks. The effectiveness of regional connectivity shouldn’t be measured by the number of agreements signed, but whether can businesses move goods faster and more reliably. Pakistan’s economic ties with Central Asia are set to be better.
However, the Trans-Afghan Railway remains a plan which needs to be worked out both commercially and in terms of security and other options are also being considered. It is not a question of constructing one railway tomorrow and putting the whole idea behind us. It is a balancing act between taking steps towards a realistic regional corridor and succumbing to years of uncertainty and weakening Pakistans stance. Geography has been a boon and not a fortune for Pakistan. Central Asia is seeking reliable connections to the world markets. Pakistan has to demonstrate its trust worthiness and get this good map a workable economic link, or it will be too late.