After the withdrawal of troops by US in September the whole dynamics of the Afghan peace process are likely to be changed. It is expected that the Afghan government will undergo huge stress because of its conflicting ties with the Taliban. The Taliban forces have been making significant inroads against the Afghan government in the recent past and it has led to the situation of continuous carnage in Afghanistan. The Afghan government forces are currently engaged in an intense fight up with the Taliban in the northern city of Kunduz and in the outskirts of Mazar-i Sharif as well which could prove devastating for the Afghan government. On this current situation the American President Joe Biden has a clear stance that this senseless violence in the country must stop.
This decision of troops withdrawal by US without a cease-fire or a framework for the political agreement between the Taliban and the government can come out with grave consequences for the Afghan state. It can prove to be a bad news for the political situation of Afghanistan and also a setback for the peace talks. It appears that as US and NATO troops withdraw the Taliban would be even more emboldened having more territory from the US backed Afghan government. It is assumed that the withdrawal of US from Afghanistan will ignite civil war in the country and end up with the Taliban taking over.
The Taliban commanders are enthusiastic and are looking to seize full control of the country and re-establishing their vision of an Islamic state as soon as the US exit from the region. As the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban continue to flutter,then the violence is expected to rage across the country. It has been speculated that as soon as the US leaves Afghanistan the government forces are not going to last too long. The Taliban’s military gains makes it evident that they are going to launch an all-out assault on Afghanistan’s cities once the US and their international allies leave the country. The Taliban’s are confident of success once US troops fully withdraw from the country ahead of the September deadline set by the US president Joe Biden. According to the earlier assessments it was thought that the Afghan government would survive for at least two years post the US exit with a timeline now of between six months and a year. However, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani thinks that the key to a political dialogue is that the Taliban accept that the future political system of Afghanistan is based only on elections and nothing else.
The observers warn that a fall in international aid following the US exit will compound the already ominous economic conditions in Afghanistan, where poverty and unemployment are soaring. After the exit of US from Afghanistan it is expected that the country would face daunting challenges and the consequences would be far greater in sustaining recent development gains in the face of mounting political uncertainties, declining international grant support, and continued insecurity as its economy is been hooked with billions of military spending and international aid. About 80 percent of the Afghanistan’s government budget is been funded by the foreign donors. However, for the economic stability of Afghanistan a ray of hope has arose as at the Geneva conference held in November 2020, the donors renewed their commitment to aid support to Afghanistan for 2021-2024. The World Bank Group engagement pursues a programmatic approach to support the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF II) that was presented by the Government of Afghanistan at the Geneva conference.
Afghanistan also has a lot of billions of dollars of untouched economic resources such as iron, nickel and coal that it can use to gain financial and economic stability but it would again require a heavy foreign investment in order to utilize it effectively. The other opportunity for Afghanistan would be that if its peace negotiations with the Taliban and other insurgents go well then it is hoped that its other sectors especially the mining sector would help a lot in terms of gaining the economic stability as it is considered to be the backbone of Afghanistan’s post war economy. The extensive interest shown by China in investing in the coal sector of Afghanistan is another great economic opportunity. This possibility of investment of worth 300 million dollars would be of great benefit for Afghanistan in terms of gaining economic sustainability after the US exit. The investments made by Pakistan and Iran in the mining sector of Afghanistan in some provinces having a better security situation is also a big deal for economy of Afghanistan..
In the subsequent civil war, the significant separation point would be between the Pashtun overwhelmed Taliban and the purported Northern Alliance made basically out of Tajiks, who talk a variation of Persian, in the west and north, Uzbeks in the north, and Hazara’s, who are Shia and accordingly have connections to Iran, in focal Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance, a free gathering of political powers instead of a durable association, address around 60% of the population, whereas Pashtuns, customarily the country’s predominant ethnic gathering, address around 40%. A major fault line exists between the Taliban and the Northern alliance leaders as the Taliban are ready to exploit America’s exit from the region.
While the vast majority of the Taliban and other terrorist groups, based right now in Afghanistan, yet devoted to assaulting Western and Islamic governments and regular folks outside of Afghanistan would be encouraged. This incorporates the Islamic State branch in Afghanistan and the leftovers of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. As indicated by an UN Security Council report, relations between the Taliban, particularly its Haqqani organization, and al-Qaeda “stay close, in view of fellowship, a past filled with shared battle, philosophical compassion, and between marriage.” But after the US exit the relations between the northern alliance and the Taliban would be deteriorated. It has also been assumed that Pakistan and India would back the Northern Alliance against the Taliban after the exit of US from the region.
Student of Bachelor’s in International Relations at National Defence University Islamabad having profound interest in regional, ethnic and global conflicts, terrorism etc.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Pakistan Frontier.