“There’s no purgatory for war criminals” says Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations (UN) in an emergency meeting called by the UN on the request from Ukraine, that is being considered a ditch attempt by the world to stop Russia from invading. Antonio Guterres, for the sake of humanity, called on the Russian President to bring Russian troops back in Russian boundaries and stop what could be the worst war of this century. The war has now entered its second week and no end seems near. Several claims have been made by both sides about war casualties and Russia has also been accused of war crimes by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states and the west.
“We are ready for any consequences”, On 24th Feb,2022 the statement that changed the world was released by Russia. “I decided to conduct a special Military Operation in Ukraine” uttered Vladimir Putin. He further added “the objective of it is to protect public from abuse and genocide of Kyiv regime, whoever tries to stop us or create further threats to our country, to our people should know that Russian response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences that you have never seen in your history”. Though Putin called it a special military operation he initiated a full fledged invasion in Ukraine. This was not any abrupt development as Putin throughout his reign in power has been calling Ukraine as part of the Russian Federation.
Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and now wanted to take in Ukraine as well. This war is in its true essence a response to NATO’s expansionism. Putin demanded NATO countries to stop expanding and restore their position in 1991, but NATO refused and continued to add Russian neighbours in the organization. Out of fear and to call out NATO, Putin decided to give a strong message that Russia will not tolerate NATO touching its borders.
Europe and NATO countries now face a dilemma of whether to enter war in Ukraine or not because if they do, it’ll lead to Russian allies entering the war as well and the result will be another world war. If they don’t then Putin achieves his objectives and will win back his diminishing popularity that is not in favour of the west. Putin holds the largest nuclear weapon arsenal and keeping in view Putin’s state of mind and his diminished sense of danger, a little misstep by the world can lead towards Nuclear War that will end with annihilation of Humankind. Europe is also dependent on Russian oil and Gas, so if they do enter war militarily then the oil and gas supply might stop, and this will be catastrophic as we have during the Arab-Israel War of the previous century.
The world has responded not militarily but with economically and enforced economic sanctions of several kinds and for the first time in history the personal foreign assets of the Russian President has been blocked. The Ukrainian President has been constantly asking help from NATO countries as well as appealing to Russian citizens to call out their president against this war. Russia has responded to these sanctions and Putin in a meeting with the Defence minister and Chief of general staff ordered them to put Russian Nuclear deterrence forces on high combat alert. Putin has a strange personality disorder that was discovered during his time as an agent in the Russian spy agency (KGB), it was found that he has diminished sense of danger. What may appear highly dangerous to others might be the least dangerous thing for him to carry out.
Putin due to his selfishness and miscalculation has put the world at brink of another world war and this time might be a nuclear world war leading to complete annihilation of humankind. He is also being referred as Hitler of recent times in the west and Ukrainians are experiencing the Hitler of modern times. Ukraine, a fully developed country, is now in ruins in some parts. Ukrainians have shown a lot of courage and bravery and their President deserves special appreciation for facing one of the largest military powers alone and making it difficult for them to illegally occupy their territory.
Ukraine’s President has constantly been asking for help from NATO countries and in a statement he said, “’If you can’t shut down the air space, give me planes.” Russian President has also been calling out Ukrainian public to stop resistance against their forces and said, ‘’your fathers and grandfathers didn’t fight against Nazi’s occupation just to let Neo-Nazi’s rule over you. You must honour their sacrifices.” Both leaders of warring countries are trying to fight a war of narrative to gain public support in their own favour.
Russian President initiated a call with French President and in that 90 min long call no diplomatic breakthrough was achieved. French President was convinced at the end of the call that, Putin has gone mad and worst is yet to come. He also gave signs that the diplomatic representatives meeting between Russians and Ukrainians won’t bear any fruit. Macron told Putin that your country will be long isolated from the world through sanctions and it would be catastrophic for Russia but Putin is determined and has plans to capture whole Ukraine.
Sanctions are affecting Russians and the world severely as petroleum prices have reached record high and moreover Russian Ruble is losing its value in international market. Regarding these sanctions Russian minister responded and said, “They think they can make us surrender our ground with these sanctions but they don’t know our firm resolve. We are ready to face any consequences to achieve our objectives.
The world has only two options either to respond to Russia with Iron fist, but this might lead towards catastrophe and the other option is to let Russia do whatever it wants in Ukraine, but this will boost the confidence of Putin and he might try to expand more attacking states that were previously part of the Soviet Union. The world is again divided in blocks but this time the commanding authorities must not let history repeat itself and they shall find a middle way to stop Russian expansion in a way that they are not pushed against the wall as it was done with the Germans in Treaty of Versailles which led towards world war2 because it will make them more aggressive.
The world is just recovering from covid19 pandemic that was a natural disaster and people do not want a man-made disaster now. These are uncertain times and the future is unpredictable. If the diplomatic meeting that is yet to be held fails then we can say one thing with certainty and to put it in the words of French President Emmanuel Macron, “THE WORST IS YET TO COME.”
Author: Abu Huraira
Author is an Undergraduate Student in Department of International Relations at National Defence University, Islamabad Pakistan.
The article analyzes the ongoing war situation in Europe with reference to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It briefly explains the reasons why Russia did so and also predicts possible future outcomes from the war.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Pakistan Frontier.