JERUSALEM: Israel’s decision last week to recognise Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state has taken the international community by surprise, marking a significant and controversial shift in its regional strategy.
Analysts say the move fits squarely into Israel’s broader effort to counter its regional rivals, particularly Iran. By engaging Somaliland, Israel could gain unprecedented strategic access to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden — waterways that are vital to global trade and regional security.
Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has never before been formally recognised by any state.
According to David Khalfa, a researcher at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation in Paris, the decision followed “highly secret discussions” in which Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, reportedly played a para-diplomatic role.
The region’s geostrategic value is central to Israel’s interest. Somaliland lies near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s busiest shipping routes linking the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. It is also close to Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi forces have launched repeated attacks on Israel since the Gaza conflict erupted in 2023.
If Israel were allowed to deploy military assets in Somaliland, it could operate fighter jets and surveillance drones to monitor and potentially strike Houthi positions. “Operating from Somaliland territory could change the game,” said Asher Lubotzky of the Institute for Israeli-African Relations, noting that previous efforts by Israel, Gulf states and the United States to curb Houthi activity have had limited success.
However, the move has raised alarm among regional experts. Samira Gaid of the Somali think tank Baqiis Insight warned that Israel’s recognition reinforces fears that the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are becoming militarised zones rather than neutral commercial corridors, further drawing the Horn of Africa into Middle Eastern rivalries.
Somaliland already hosts a UAE military base at the port of Berbera, and Abu Dhabi — a close Israeli ally — may help facilitate Israeli access. The region has also held talks with Ethiopia, another Israeli partner, on building a new port.
Observers say Israel’s growing presence could intensify competition with Turkiye, which has long maintained influence in Somalia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan swiftly condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, calling it “illegitimate and unacceptable,” signalling that the Horn of Africa may soon become another arena of geopolitical rivalry.