PCA rules treaty remains fully in force, rejects India’s grounds for unilateral suspension
ISLAMABAD: The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) has ruled that the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between Pakistan and India remains fully in force.
The Hague-based court also ordered India to temporarily halt certain construction activities at the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant in occupied Kashmir.
The ruling comes amid growing tensions between the two countries over the 1960 water-sharing agreement.
India unilaterally announced that it was holding the treaty in abeyance in April 2025. Pakistan rejected the move and warned that any attempt to stop or reduce its water share would be treated as an “act of war”.
Pakistan also argued that India had no legal basis to suspend the treaty unilaterally.
In its latest decision, the PCA backed Pakistan’s position. It said India had no grounds under the treaty or international law to suspend or terminate the agreement.
The court examined the possible grounds cited by India in its public statements. It concluded unanimously that none justified suspending or ending the treaty.
“The IWT remains fully in force,” the PCA said, adding that India must continue to meet its obligations.
These obligations include rules governing the design and operation of Indian hydropower projects on the western rivers.
Under the IWT, India has control over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Pakistan has rights over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.
The treaty also provides mechanisms for information sharing and resolving disputes between the two countries.
Ratle project construction restricted
The PCA also issued interim measures concerning the Ratle Hydroelectric Plant.
It ordered India not to concrete parts of the Ratle dam wall and power intake structure above specified levels.
The restrictions will remain in place until 90 days after a neutral expert issues a final decision on the project.
The court also ordered India to provide reports concerning the Ratle construction schedule.
However, it rejected two additional measures sought by Pakistan.
The Ratle and Kishenganga hydropower projects are also being examined by a World Bank-appointed neutral expert.
The expert is expected to issue a final decision in July 2027 on whether the projects comply with the IWT.
Treaty cannot be placed in unilateral ‘abeyance’
The PCA said the IWT contains no provision allowing either country to suspend, terminate or place the agreement in “abeyance” unilaterally.
It noted that the treaty can only be modified or terminated through a new agreement adopted jointly by India and Pakistan.
The court also rejected India’s argument that its sovereignty allowed it to suspend the treaty.
It said customary international law does not provide a state with a general right to unilaterally suspend or terminate a treaty on the basis of sovereignty.
The PCA examined three possible grounds for unilateral suspension or termination. These included a material breach, a fundamental change in circumstances and the effects of armed conflict.
It found that none of the conditions had been met.
Terrorism claim rejected
India had linked its decision to suspend the treaty to allegations of cross-border terrorism.
The PCA said the IWT does not regulate terrorism or the use of force. Instead, it governs rights and obligations concerning the Indus river system.
The court found no evidence that the alleged terrorism had prevented India from constructing hydropower projects on the western rivers.
It noted that India had continued to build such projects, including in recent years.
The court also said that, even if India’s allegations were accepted, they would not amount to a material breach of the treaty by Pakistan.
India had also cited demographic changes, its need for clean energy, advances in dam technology and climate change.
However, the PCA found that none of these factors met the legal requirements for invoking a “fundamental change of circumstances”.
The court further said the IWT was designed to remain operational even during armed conflict.
Pakistan welcomes ruling
Pakistan welcomed the PCA’s findings.
The Information Ministry said Islamabad had taken note of the ruling and welcomed the court’s conclusion that India remains bound by its obligations under the IWT.
Pakistan also welcomed the measures concerning the Ratle project.
The government said it would study the detailed award and decision once they are formally published.
It will also examine how the ruling could help restore engagement between the two countries under the treaty.
India rejects PCA decision
India rejected the ruling and said it did not recognise the court’s authority in the matter.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said the so-called Court of Arbitration had “no jurisdiction whatsoever” over India’s sovereign decisions.
New Delhi had not participated in the proceedings or submitted written or oral arguments in response to Pakistan’s application.
The PCA said it nevertheless considered India’s publicly stated positions and relevant communications while reaching its decision.
Background to the arbitration
Pakistan originally initiated arbitration proceedings over the western rivers in August 2016.
The World Bank paused the appointment process later that year. The pause was lifted in 2022, after which a neutral expert was appointed.
Following India’s decision to place the IWT in abeyance in April 2025, the PCA ruled in June 2025 that the move could not affect its jurisdiction over the dispute.
At the time, however, the court did not determine whether the treaty itself remained in force.
Pakistan subsequently filed an application on March 4 seeking a ruling on the treaty’s status. India was invited to participate but did not respond. The court later directed Pakistan to submit a detailed written memorial. It also held hearings at the Peace Palace in The Hague from April 26 to 28.
The latest ruling now confirms that the Indus Waters Treaty remains legally operational and that India must continue to comply with its obligations under the agreement.