Nagorno Karabakh -Unpacking The Conflict/Opinion By Fatima Mazhar.

Nagorno-Karabakh is located in the Caucasus region, between Asia and Europe. Internationally, it has long been recognized as part of Azerbaijan. The population of Nagorno-Karabakh has been mostly ethnic Armenian with Azeri minority. It contains many important historical Armenian buildings. The Russian empire ruled this region in the 19th century but after the fall of empire, the two countries Armenia and Azerbaijan came into being.

The newly formed countries fought over Nagorno Karabakh region. Later on, the entire region of Caucasus was captured by the Russian soviets and they made these two countries Republics within Soviet Union. Nagorno-Karabakh was made a semi-autonomous region in the Azerbaijani Republic despite the fact that majority of the population there was of Armenian origin. Ethnic Armenians wanted to join Armenian Republic but were not allowed to do so.

Conflict and violations started between Armenians and Azerbaijan after the fall of the Soviet Union. The Glasnost policy of Soviet made the situation worse. In 1988, ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan passed a referendum to leave the Azerbaijan Republic which brought the conflict back to life again. Azerbaijan protested against this decision and soon violence erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The fall of the Soviet Union was a very important event that played a role in determining the fate of the conflict. After the collapse of Soviet Union, the two countries declared independence in 1991 and the tensions in the contested region worsened. More than 20,000 people were said to have been killed and many displaced. Moreover, Armenia set up a republic of Artsakh in the Nagorno Karabakh. The war went on for 3 years till 1994 when Armenia gained victory and a ceasefire agreement was signed between the two parties. Many Azeris were displaced from their homes. Russia was a former ally of Armenia but also had good relations with Azerbaijan and was involved in the mediation of the ceasefire agreement. “Minsk Group” was formed by Russia along with USA and France for the resolution of this conflict.

But, Armenia did not agree to the settlement of this ceasefire agreement and more ethnic Armenians started to move to the Azeri towns captured by Armenia. Azerbaijan kept on recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as an Armenian territory but it had plans for a comeback. Azerbaijan spent around 24 million dollars from the period of 2008 to 2019 on its military modernization. In 2016, Azeri forces faced Armenian forces again, in what is known as the “Four day war.” But despite all the efforts, the military expenditure of Azerbaijan was not enough to defeat the Armenian forces.

In 2020, Turkey came forward to support Azerbaijan and also conducted military exercises and provided them with drones which would play a very important role in the later war. With the full support of turkey, Azerbaijan attacked Armenia and within one week, it was successful intruding the country’s territories. Then it captured Shusha city of Nagorno-Karabakh. This whole event proved to be in the favor of Azerbaijan. Moreover,cluster munitions were seen to be used by both the parties during this conflict.

On 8thNovember, 2020, after a war which lasted 44 days, Azerbaijan declared victory.Thousands of people have died during these armed conflicts and millions have been displaced. US called this situation “a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation.”Exchanges of fire and acts of provocation began in the early September of this year between the two parties.

On 19th of September, 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military attack again in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan accused Armenians of terrorism in a statement and wanted to wipe out the Armenian troops from the region.Having been disputed for decades, Nagorno-Karabakh is now in full control of Azerbaijan. Thousands of refugees have started to leave Nagorno-Karabakh. Ethnic Armenians no longer feel safe in the region. Armenian Prime Minister has called this act by Azerbaijan as an “act of ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their homeland.”

Azerbaijan has now plans of completely integrating Nagorno-Karabakh in its territory.According to Armenian analysts, the fate of the region has been decided by the force of arms and it is a clear ethnic cleansing policy of Azerbaijan which has been there for a long time. They also raised a question that Azerbaijan failed to provide its own citizens with the basic human rights, so how can it claim to provide these Armenians with those rights. Whereas, Azeri analysts claim that during the whole conflict,Azerbaijan Army was very cautious of not targeting any civilians and not intending to create panic among people.

Azerbaijan government claims of welcoming Armenians of Nagorno with better living conditions, infrastructure and houses and promises to provide them with all the rights as all the other ethnic groups living in Azerbaijan possess.

One can say that the war is finally over. Nagorno-Karabakh will now dissolve after years of unrest and will cease to exist. Ethnic Armenians keep on fleeing to Armenia. More than 90,000 people have fled so far.

The dissolution of Nagorno-Karabakh has even sparked violence in Lebanon and Lebanese Armenians have been seen protesting for the region coming under Azerbaijani control. UN is planning to send a mission to the region in order to assess the humanitarian situation there and to provide necessary humanitarian aid. It’s important to keep in mind that real people—families torn apart, communities destroyed, and lives forever changed—lie beneath the numbers and the political rhetoric.

We must not lose sight of the human cost of this conflict as we work towards a resolution. If we are to move forward, empathy, compassion, and understanding are necessary. Although the path to peace may be challenging and protracted, we must firmly follow it. Hope for a better future in the region can be found in diplomacy, communication, and international cooperation.

It is our responsibility to work towards peaceful conflict resolution in light of the lessons learned from history. The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict ultimately serves as an important reminder of the urgent need for peaceful coexistence in our increasingly globalized world. Let us strive for a world where dialogue prevails over conflict and where our common pursuit of peace unites us all as we reflect on the past and consider the future.

The author, Fatima Mazhar is pursuing bachelors in International Relations from National Defense University, Islamabad. Her areas of interest include International Peace and Conflict studies, Diplomacy and Humanitarian Affairs.