Security sources on Monday alleged that India could be preparing for a possible false-flag operation against Pakistan, reportedly involving Pakistani nationals currently held in Indian prisons.
According to the reports, dozens of Pakistani citizens — including some from Kashmir — are detained in Indian jails after inadvertently crossing the border. The sources claim that some of these prisoners may now be relocated or used as part of a staged incident intended to implicate Pakistan.
They further alleged that such a move could be aimed at diverting international attention from India’s recent diplomatic challenges while attempting to shift blame toward Pakistan. However, these claims have not been independently verified.
Tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours have repeatedly escalated following attacks in the disputed Kashmir region.
In May last year, an attack on tourists in Indian-occupied Kashmir prompted New Delhi to accuse Pakistan of involvement without presenting public evidence. Islamabad strongly rejected the allegations and called for an impartial international investigation.
The incident triggered a brief but intense military escalation. India launched air strikes in Punjab and Azad Kashmir, while both countries carried out retaliatory strikes on each other’s airbases during a four-day standoff. The confrontation eventually ended on May 10 following diplomatic intervention by the United States, which helped broker a ceasefire.
A similar crisis occurred after the Pulwama Attack on February 14, 2019, in which more than 40 Indian paramilitary personnel were killed in Indian-occupied Kashmir. India accused Pakistan-linked groups of orchestrating the attack, an allegation Islamabad denied.
The situation escalated further when India conducted air strikes near Balakot, claiming to target a militant training camp. Pakistan rejected the claim, saying the strikes caused no major damage.
The crisis led to aerial combat between the two countries, during which Pakistan shot down an Indian aircraft and captured Abhinandan Varthaman, who was later released and returned to India in what Pakistan described as a gesture of peace.
Analysts say the history of accusations and counter-accusations between the two rivals highlights the fragility of peace in South Asia and the risk of rapid escalation following security incidents.