KARACHI: Meteorological experts have issued a stark warning for Pakistan’s largest city, predicting that a developing “Super El Niño” phenomenon will unleash extreme heat and weather disruptions across Karachi by August 2026. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts that the climate event, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters, will significantly alter regional weather patterns, leading to soaring temperatures and an unpredictable monsoon season.
Anjum Zaigham, Deputy Director of the PMD, confirmed the imminent threat in a statement to ARY News. “We are expecting El Niño this coming summer, and it is projected to intensify into a Super El Niño between August and September,” Zaigham stated. He emphasized that such events typically suppress the vital summer monsoon across the Indian subcontinent, crucial for agriculture and water resources.
The global implications of a Super El Niño are profound, with scientists warning it could disrupt weather systems worldwide. For Karachi, a coastal metropolis of over 20 million, the direct impact is expected to be severe heat stress. Experts warn the city’s “real feel” temperature—a measure combining heat and humidity—is likely to increase dramatically, exacerbating public health risks and straining energy infrastructure during peak summer months.
Beyond immediate temperature spikes, the phenomenon threatens to alter storm patterns and rainfall distribution. This volatility could lead to water scarcity issues juxtaposed with potential flash flooding, creating a complex crisis for urban planners and disaster management authorities. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, of which El Niño is a phase, has historically been linked to extreme weather events across the globe.
Zaigham’s warning carries a sobering long-term projection: “If a Super El Niño forms, 2027 could potentially become the warmest year on record.” This aligns with international climate assessments that link strong El Niño events to global temperature records, raising concerns about accelerating climate change impacts in a region already vulnerable to its effects.
The PMD’s alert underscores the urgent need for preparedness in Karachi. Authorities may need to implement heat action plans, enhance early warning systems, and bolster public health services to mitigate the impact on the city’s population. As the world watches the development of this climate phenomenon, Pakistan’s economic hub stands on the frontline of its potential consequences.
The warning has since been reinforced by multiple climate authorities. According to NOAA, there is a 50–60% probability of El Niño forming during the July–September 2026 window. Climate scientist Tido Semmler of Ireland’s National Meteorological Service has noted that the full global impact of El Niño can take months to unfold, meaning effects could extend well into 2027 if it strengthens in late 2026.
For Karachi specifically, meteorological officials warn that the city may experience significantly higher “feels-like” temperatures due to increased humidity combined with extreme heat intensity. The coastal metropolis of over 20 million people faces compounding risks — extreme heat stress, potential water scarcity, and disrupted monsoon patterns arriving simultaneously.
The NDMA has also issued warnings about the Super El Niño threat, with experts flagging increased likelihood of heatwaves and drought across Pakistan. Citizens are advised to limit outdoor exposure during peak afternoon hours, stay hydrated, and monitor PMD updates regularly as the situation develops through summer 2026.
(Updated: April 26 2026)