Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, even as attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continued, according to shipping data released on Monday.
Exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed. The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1.
Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February this year. The figures include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30. The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February.
These figures exclude vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off to avoid detection. Before the war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container vessels. It accounted for about 20% of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply.
Despite the recovery in oil flows, attacks on tankers have continued in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported, shipping intelligence firm Marisks said in a report on Saturday.
The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile on October 1 while operating in the strait, causing a fire onboard the tanker, Marisks said. All crew members were reported safe and were subsequently evacuated from the vessel.
Kazimah III was last seen discharging 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port on the coast of Oman on September 17, according to Kpler data. Its owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside office hours.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks said merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat following the recent sharp increase in traffic.
Current intelligence suggests that the recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels, Marisks said. Instead, available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area or kill box, with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within that area.
Physical presence within the engagement zone at the relevant time could itself represent the primary exposure, Marisks added.
The data indicates that despite the persistent security risks, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have shown resilience, with export volumes surpassing pre-war levels on several days. However, the continued attacks underscore the volatility of the region and the challenges facing shipping and energy markets.
Source: Geo News