This month of July witnessed fast paced developments when it comes to the Afghan quagmire. The month began when President Biden, whose forces had operated in Afghanistan, depicted resentment in answering questions pertaining Afghanistan. He remarked being frustrated by those questions. The context underpins the loss of nearly 2400 American lives and thousands more injured. While this event just marked the beginning of a perplexing July for Afghanistan, US withdrawal is stated to have caught pace. It is expected that US troops will be gone even before Biden’s announced date of September 11th 2021. US military withdrawal from Afghanistan is expected to be completed till August.
Last month there were healthy prospects of the Istanbul Conference or the Doha based Intra Afghan dialogue. But none of those materialized into any substantial peace agreement. On the other side, Taliban have hastened their capturing of districts. The Afghan security forces, despite being trained directly by US forces have painted a dismal picture so far. Reports of Afghan troops escaping to Pakistan and Tajikistan have made headlines. On the other hand, certain executives in Kabul have tried to peddle politics in security issues.
A lot can be said for who is responsible for Afghan woes. At this time, even labeling Afghans as the only victims of conflict does not hold any materiality. Neighboring Pakistan suffered massively, both in human and economic cost. Pakistan’s partaking in US war on Terror haunts the country till date. And US on the other hand is simply leaving the mess behind as it parrots the ‘let Afghans decide for themselves’ narrative.
While every conflict has multidimensional causes, every belligerent has their fair share of blame games and history often becomes a tool to malign the other responsible party. In such a case, it is necessary to keep a check on the chain of events for a conflict that is occurring contemporarily. So an observer cannot become a victim to prejudiced narratives brought forth by spoilers having vested interests.
A blame game on all levels:
The simplest way is to blame the power that does not have any more stakes. More recently, a blame game is being observed between US and Afghan intelligentsia. For observers of Afghan situation, this was expected as numerous US think tanks and policy institutes had already embarked on shoving the blame on the incompetence of the Kabul government and its security apparatus. On the other hand. Kabul government has resorted to a blame game ever since its inception after the Operation Enduring Freedom. For history readers, hasty US exit is not surprising, after all is this not another Vietnam? Ironically US did not have a clearly defined exit strategy for Vietnam, and did not have one for Afghanistan too.
Who is to be called out?
The chain of events that has taken place in the last few weeks is enough to show which gentry is responsible for Afghan woes. Which league of ‘extraordinary gentlemen’ has not just used delaying tactics, but spoiling tactics that placed their own countrymen in the line of fire. Who is responsible for delayed Intra-Afghan settlement and lastly, who intentionally hindered the limited venues that were available for across-the-board Intra Afghan engagement. The Afghan peace conference that was about to take place in Islamabad from 17th July where leaders from all Afghan groups and ethnicities would have partook was delayed by the Kabul government. Ashraf Ghani indulged in peace hampering contrivance during the “Central and South Asia Regional Connectivity: Challenges and Opportunities” conference that took place in Tashkent on 15th of July. During the summit, where regional players had gathered to deliberate options for inter connectivity and more importantly Afghan peace, the Afghan President indulged in verbally targeting Pakistan which was responded to by the Pakistani Premier. For any political analyst, this is equivalent to intentionally putting a discord in bilateral relations and downplaying the regional endeavor for Afghan peace. All due to incumbent Kabul government hesitancy to engage in conducive process because it does not want to lose control over whatever regions it still holds writ over.
A Spy turned Spoiler?
The Afghan Vice President Amarullah Saleh, in particular has torpedoed the prospects of any positive engagement with Islamabad. For the last few weeks, the former spy chief has engaged in a social media activism where he has only targeted Pakistan using the same old arguments of ‘ISI backing the Taliban’ and blaming every shortcoming faced by Kabul onto Islamabad. Surprisingly, this comes a time where forces under his ambit are unable to contain Taliban from capturing districts, which as per a top US general now control about half of Afghanistan’s nearly 400 districts. Even more , the Afghan VP indulged in an uninformed tirade when Taliban captured Spin Boldak. Saleh claimed that Pakistani Air Force had issued warnings to Afghan combat elements from reinforcing their forces in the area. Now that many days have passed, no ground or air support ever came to Spin Boldak. The Afghan military assets in the area were left to fend for themselves while the pro Kabul leadership was extracted. The readers should not be surprised if they get a feeling that Afghan VP in guise of his tirade, devoid of international law governing aerial and land boundaries, aimed to hide his governments flaws by blaming Pakistan. More so, the Afghan VP in his Twitter tirade even claimed to have evidence of PAF’s move, which he has not yet made public. Pakistani Foreign office in response to Saleh’s stated that “PAF never communicated anything to the Afghan Air Force. Such statements undermine Pakistan’s sincere efforts to play its part in an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led solution.” Saleh seemed to have forgotten that just a few days before Pakistan had rescued 40 personnel of Kabul’s forces that escaped to Pakistan from the Taliban offensive.
Scarring Prospects of Peace:
In this week Saleh indulged in giving unprofessional remarks for the Pakistani NSA Moeed Yusuf, calling him as the ‘insecurity advisor’ of Pakistan.
Another diplomatic incident which was hyped was the alleged kidnapping of the daughter of Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan. Kabul immediately gave a statement calling the incident as kidnapping with no investigations. While the investigations were still underway Kabul called back its diplomatic staff from Islamabad. Pakistan on the other hand carried out its due process and negated the account with adequate investigation. In this case too, no further comments have been given from Kabul although a security team might be sent, a step which Pakistan has actually welcomed and ensured their end of cooperation.
The Afghan NSA has not kept back from statements and actions that would add to his soured relations with Pakistan. The young NSA , from calling Pakistan a’ brothel house’. to engaging with a disqualified former Premier of Pakistan, that too from Punjab has left no leaf unturned in hindering the peace process.
Conclusion:
This would leave the reader confused as to what the so called democratic leaders at the Arg palace want. Will this leadership hinder the any peaceful settlement deliberately, and that too at the cost of Afghan civilians.
A wave of increasing desperation has been observed from Ghani-Saleh-Mohib Trifecta ever since the Doha accords were signed. From blaming Taliban for terror attacks without prior investigations to ignoring even Western accounts on terrorist attacks ( Dasht e Barchi and De Mining ops), Kabul government has depicted the deliberate fault lines in its approach. Now it is vying for Indian assistance in its battle against the Taliban. Ironically, since reports of an Indo-Taliban Concordat emerged , neither Ghani nor Saleh has commented on Indian outreach to Taliban. This is confusing as this Kabul’s political elite is at the forefront of calling out Pakistan even when there is no empirical relevance present.
There’s a lot that can be said. But for those who wish for peace it is no more a time for normative smokescreens. It is the time to call out the spoilers directly,those spoilers who are risking Afghan peace by intentionally sabotaging any overture for peace by regional and domestic actors. These spoilers in well knitted suits and a good educational background should have been the first to welcome peace initiatives but they rather became the very source of a stagnant peace process?
What benefits do they derive by souring relations with neighbors? Why do they smear Pakistan only? Why are they engaging with controversial figures in Pakistani politics? Why are they hesitant for Afghan peace when all other factions have agreed to engagement?
As long as present Kabul leadership will not reconsider its approach to impending issues; initiatives to peace will keep meeting a dead end. The rationale for ‘Afghan led, Afghan owned peace’ will not materialize. More so, Kabul elite’s own standing in the international community would become a subject to scrutiny.
With an uneven situation, sanity demands for all stakeholders to hasten their endeavors for Afghan peace so spoilers can be given little space to ‘spoil’ peace and bilateral relations.
Author: Hammad Waleed
Hammad Waleed is a scholar of International Relations based in Islamabad. His interests include Discourse analysis, Foreign policy analysis, South Asian affairs, Pak-Afghan ties, Military and Strategic affairs. He can be reached at [email protected]
